Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate Seoul will reach a daytime maximum of precisely 24°C on May 16 under a stable high-pressure system promoting clear skies, light southerly flow, and modest warm-air advection near the seasonal climatological norm of 22–24°C. This consensus across short-range models underpins the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for the 24°C outcome. The slim 0.2% combined odds for 25°C or higher reflect residual uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer heating or minor urban-heat-island amplification, which could push readings one degree higher if winds weaken or insolation exceeds expectations. Updated model runs and real-time observations over the next several hours remain the key variables that could still shift the final recorded high.