Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shanghai, with implied probabilities peaking at 25°C (33.5%) ahead of 24°C and 26°C (both 25.5%), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting a daytime high near 25°C under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread from variable low-level moisture advection and urban heat island effects at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ID 58462), where official observations resolve the market; recent days' highs of 23–26°C align with mid-May climatology (historical average ~24.5°C), but subtle sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development could tip toward 24°C or 26°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model refreshes expected overnight may sharpen odds before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 15?
25°C 34%
24°C 25%
26°C 25%
23°C 11%
НОВЕ
$18,943 Обс.
НОВЕ
$18,943 Обс.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
11%
24°C
25%
25°C
34%
26°C
25%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 34%
24°C 25%
26°C 25%
23°C 11%
НОВЕ
$18,943 Обс.
НОВЕ
$18,943 Обс.
May 15, 2026
20°C or below
$3,240 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$2,419 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$2,216 Обс.
1%
23°C
$1,427 Обс.
11%
24°C
$1,172 Обс.
25%
25°C
$1,281 Обс.
34%
26°C
$1,129 Обс.
25%
27°C
$1,475 Обс.
7%
28°C
$2,313 Обс.
1%
29°C
$1,272 Обс.
1%
30°C or higher
$1,020 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shanghai, with implied probabilities peaking at 25°C (33.5%) ahead of 24°C and 26°C (both 25.5%), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting a daytime high near 25°C under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread from variable low-level moisture advection and urban heat island effects at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ID 58462), where official observations resolve the market; recent days' highs of 23–26°C align with mid-May climatology (historical average ~24.5°C), but subtle sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development could tip toward 24°C or 26°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model refreshes expected overnight may sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$18,943Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shanghai, with implied probabilities peaking at 25°C (33.5%) ahead of 24°C and 26°C (both 25.5%), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting a daytime high near 25°C under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread from variable low-level moisture advection and urban heat island effects at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ID 58462), where official observations resolve the market; recent days' highs of 23–26°C align with mid-May climatology (historical average ~24.5°C), but subtle sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development could tip toward 24°C or 26°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model refreshes expected overnight may sharpen odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$18,943Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Shanghai, with implied probabilities peaking at 25°C (33.5%) ahead of 24°C and 26°C (both 25.5%), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF models projecting a daytime high near 25°C under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include model spread from variable low-level moisture advection and urban heat island effects at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station (ID 58462), where official observations resolve the market; recent days' highs of 23–26°C align with mid-May climatology (historical average ~24.5°C), but subtle sea breeze timing and afternoon cloud development could tip toward 24°C or 26°C. Updated CMA bulletins and model refreshes expected overnight may sharpen odds before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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