Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 21°C high in Moscow on May 16, with 20°C close behind at comparable odds, reflecting uncertainty in the latest forecast models amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, as reflected in services like yr.no (21°C max) and AccuWeather (24°C but with showers), show a spread due to variable cloud cover and potential afternoon precipitation following today's forecasted 19–24°C highs with thunderstorms. Southeasterly winds and lingering moisture from recent rains cap heating potential, while upper-level ridging supports above-average temps (May norms ~18–19°C). Key differentiator: model divergence on boundary layer mixing versus convective clouds, with resolution hinging on hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport; expect updates from Russian Hydrometcenter overnight.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
21°C 30%
20°C 19%
22°C 17.4%
23°C or higher 13.8%
НОВЕ
$11,232 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,232 Обс.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
19%
21°C
30%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 30%
20°C 19%
22°C 17.4%
23°C or higher 13.8%
НОВЕ
$11,232 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,232 Обс.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$1,499 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$681 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$521 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$950 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$1,548 Обс.
1%
18°C
$1,717 Обс.
2%
19°C
$848 Обс.
5%
20°C
$319 Обс.
19%
21°C
$490 Обс.
30%
22°C
$482 Обс.
17%
23°C or higher
$2,202 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 21°C high in Moscow on May 16, with 20°C close behind at comparable odds, reflecting uncertainty in the latest forecast models amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, as reflected in services like yr.no (21°C max) and AccuWeather (24°C but with showers), show a spread due to variable cloud cover and potential afternoon precipitation following today's forecasted 19–24°C highs with thunderstorms. Southeasterly winds and lingering moisture from recent rains cap heating potential, while upper-level ridging supports above-average temps (May norms ~18–19°C). Key differentiator: model divergence on boundary layer mixing versus convective clouds, with resolution hinging on hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport; expect updates from Russian Hydrometcenter overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,232Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 21°C high in Moscow on May 16, with 20°C close behind at comparable odds, reflecting uncertainty in the latest forecast models amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, as reflected in services like yr.no (21°C max) and AccuWeather (24°C but with showers), show a spread due to variable cloud cover and potential afternoon precipitation following today's forecasted 19–24°C highs with thunderstorms. Southeasterly winds and lingering moisture from recent rains cap heating potential, while upper-level ridging supports above-average temps (May norms ~18–19°C). Key differentiator: model divergence on boundary layer mixing versus convective clouds, with resolution hinging on hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport; expect updates from Russian Hydrometcenter overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$11,232Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 21°C high in Moscow on May 16, with 20°C close behind at comparable odds, reflecting uncertainty in the latest forecast models amid a transitional spring pattern. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs, as reflected in services like yr.no (21°C max) and AccuWeather (24°C but with showers), show a spread due to variable cloud cover and potential afternoon precipitation following today's forecasted 19–24°C highs with thunderstorms. Southeasterly winds and lingering moisture from recent rains cap heating potential, while upper-level ridging supports above-average temps (May norms ~18–19°C). Key differentiator: model divergence on boundary layer mixing versus convective clouds, with resolution hinging on hourly observations from Vnukovo Airport; expect updates from Russian Hydrometcenter overnight.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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