The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$86,682 Обс.
$86,682 Обс.
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$86,682 Обс.
$86,682 Обс.
May 15, 2026
13°C or below
$2,789 Обс.
No
14°C
$6,048 Обс.
No
15°C
$5,733 Обс.
No
16°C
$11,680 Обс.
No
17°C
$10,521 Обс.
Yes
18°C
$11,659 Обс.
No
19°C
$9,332 Обс.
No
20°C
$12,584 Обс.
No
21°C
$6,279 Обс.
No
22°C
$4,519 Обс.
No
23°C or higher
$5,537 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Обсяг
$86,682Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$86,682Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 17°C high in Madrid on May 15 reflects official AEMET observations and model consensus showing a cool northerly airflow advecting stable air masses across central Spain, limiting daytime heating under persistent cloud cover. Morning temperatures started near 10°C, and reduced solar insolation from the unstable pattern capped the peak well below the May climatological average of 22–24°C, as confirmed by ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs. This aligns with historical analogs for similar late-spring setups featuring weak pressure gradients. Resolution at exactly 17°C could shift only if post-analysis revisions from Barajas Airport data reveal a brief sun break exceeding model guidance, though current verified readings make such adjustments unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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