Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 17?
22°C 36%
23°C 26%
21°C 23%
24°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
23%
22°C
36%
23°C
26%
24°C
12%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 36%
23°C 26%
21°C 23%
24°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 17, 2026
17°C or below
$210 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$114 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$140 Обс.
2%
20°C
$275 Обс.
5%
21°C
$614 Обс.
23%
22°C
$348 Обс.
36%
23°C
$249 Обс.
26%
24°C
$259 Обс.
12%
25°C
$99 Обс.
2%
26°C
$123 Обс.
1%
27°C or higher
$141 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,505Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$2,505Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance, with maxima clustering around 22–24°C for May 17 amid a transitional weather pattern featuring a weakening Atlantic frontal system and building high pressure over Iberia. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergences: ECMWF leaning toward 23°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds aiding diurnal heating, while GFS hints at 22°C if lingering stratocumulus suppresses peaks. Historical mid-May highs average 23°C in Madrid, with urban effects adding 1–2°C; current soil moisture from early-month rains tempers extremes. New 00Z runs and AEMET intraday updates expected soon could sharpen odds, as cloud cover timing remains the key differentiator.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання