Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 20°C high temperature in Warsaw on May 15, with 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts updated May 14, which tightly cluster daytime peaks at 19–20°C under a stable high-pressure ridge. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport confirm starts around 11–12°C, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine supporting typical May insolation patterns—climatological averages hover near 19.3°C. IMGW guidance notes regional highs of 20–22°C amid variable cloudiness. Realistic challenges include thickening clouds reducing solar heating or late-afternoon cold air intrusion capping at 19°C, plus potential thundery showers; hourly airport data through afternoon will provide final clarity ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$62,422 Обс.
$62,422 Обс.
May 15, 2026
20°C
100%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$62,422 Обс.
$62,422 Обс.
May 15, 2026
20°C
$9,192 Обс.
100%
21°C
$7,546 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$6,793 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$9,430 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$3,234 Обс.
<1%
25°C or higher
$2,687 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 20°C high temperature in Warsaw on May 15, with 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts updated May 14, which tightly cluster daytime peaks at 19–20°C under a stable high-pressure ridge. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport confirm starts around 11–12°C, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine supporting typical May insolation patterns—climatological averages hover near 19.3°C. IMGW guidance notes regional highs of 20–22°C amid variable cloudiness. Realistic challenges include thickening clouds reducing solar heating or late-afternoon cold air intrusion capping at 19°C, plus potential thundery showers; hourly airport data through afternoon will provide final clarity ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Обсяг
$62,422Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 20°C high temperature in Warsaw on May 15, with 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts updated May 14, which tightly cluster daytime peaks at 19–20°C under a stable high-pressure ridge. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport confirm starts around 11–12°C, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine supporting typical May insolation patterns—climatological averages hover near 19.3°C. IMGW guidance notes regional highs of 20–22°C amid variable cloudiness. Realistic challenges include thickening clouds reducing solar heating or late-afternoon cold air intrusion capping at 19°C, plus potential thundery showers; hourly airport data through afternoon will provide final clarity ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$62,422Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a 20°C high temperature in Warsaw on May 15, with 100% implied probability, anchored by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts updated May 14, which tightly cluster daytime peaks at 19–20°C under a stable high-pressure ridge. Morning observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport confirm starts around 11–12°C, with light southerly winds and partial sunshine supporting typical May insolation patterns—climatological averages hover near 19.3°C. IMGW guidance notes regional highs of 20–22°C amid variable cloudiness. Realistic challenges include thickening clouds reducing solar heating or late-afternoon cold air intrusion capping at 19°C, plus potential thundery showers; hourly airport data through afternoon will provide final clarity ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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