Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 15?
20°C 35%
21°C 27%
22°C or higher 25%
19°C 14%
НОВЕ
$10,738 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,738 Обс.
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
14%
20°C
35%
21°C
27%
22°C or higher
25%
20°C 35%
21°C 27%
22°C or higher 25%
19°C 14%
НОВЕ
$10,738 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,738 Обс.
May 15, 2026
12°C or below
$523 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$750 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$755 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$1,034 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$1,832 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$1,001 Обс.
1%
18°C
$1,602 Обс.
4%
19°C
$1,024 Обс.
14%
20°C
$989 Обс.
35%
21°C
$453 Обс.
27%
22°C or higher
$777 Обс.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,738Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$10,738Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Istanbul's May 15 high temperature, clustering around 20-22°C amid typical mid-May variability. Official historical data from sources like WeatherSpark and AccuWeather indicate average May highs of 21-22°C (70°F), with a standard deviation of about 3°C driven by sea breeze influences from the Sea of Marmara and Black Sea, afternoon cloud development, and weak high-pressure ridging over the eastern Mediterranean. No major developments like cold fronts or heat surges have occurred in the past week, leaving model disagreements on boundary layer mixing and insolation as key differentiators between the leading outcomes. Updated runs from NOAA, ECMWF, and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within hours could refine probabilities as actual observations from Istanbul Airport resolve the market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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