National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco International Airport project a daytime high near 62–64°F on May 16 amid persistent onshore marine layer advection from the Pacific, which sustains low stratus decks and restricts afternoon warming despite building high pressure. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 64–65°F outcome at 45 percent implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on typical mid-May climatology near 65°F and limited burn-off from overnight clouds. Recent observations of thicker marine stratus and breezy west winds around 15 mph have reinforced cooler readings, keeping higher bins such as 66–67°F at just 19.5 percent. Resolution depends on official KSFO maximum observations, with any unexpected marine-layer thinning potentially shifting sentiment toward warmer thresholds.