Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 12°C as London's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Met Office forecasts indicating a maximum of 14°C amid bright spells but frequent heavy showers, hail risks, and a fresh northwesterly breeze gusting to 20 mph, which suppresses daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and unstable air. BBC Weather aligns closely with a 13°C high under light rain showers, yet traders favor slightly cooler outcomes like 12°C (38.5%) and 13°C (27%) over 14°C (13.5%), reflecting caution from recent underperformance of models during this unsettled low-pressure pattern—May 13's high hit around 13-14°C despite similar predictions. Climatological May highs average 17°C, but current below-normal conditions dominate; watch overnight forecast updates from the Met Office for potential shifts ahead of resolution via London City Airport observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in London on May 14?
Highest temperature in London on May 14?
12°C 39%
13°C 28%
11°C 14.3%
14°C 14%
НОВЕ
$83,085 Обс.
НОВЕ
$83,085 Обс.
May 14, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
4%
11°C
14%
12°C
39%
13°C
28%
14°C
14%
15°C
3%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 39%
13°C 28%
11°C 14.3%
14°C 14%
НОВЕ
$83,085 Обс.
НОВЕ
$83,085 Обс.
May 14, 2026
7°C or below
$5,152 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$4,016 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$13,966 Обс.
1%
10°C
$13,173 Обс.
4%
11°C
$6,858 Обс.
14%
12°C
$5,091 Обс.
39%
13°C
$6,879 Обс.
28%
14°C
$7,727 Обс.
14%
15°C
$8,309 Обс.
3%
16°C
$6,962 Обс.
1%
17°C or higher
$4,963 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 12°C as London's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Met Office forecasts indicating a maximum of 14°C amid bright spells but frequent heavy showers, hail risks, and a fresh northwesterly breeze gusting to 20 mph, which suppresses daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and unstable air. BBC Weather aligns closely with a 13°C high under light rain showers, yet traders favor slightly cooler outcomes like 12°C (38.5%) and 13°C (27%) over 14°C (13.5%), reflecting caution from recent underperformance of models during this unsettled low-pressure pattern—May 13's high hit around 13-14°C despite similar predictions. Climatological May highs average 17°C, but current below-normal conditions dominate; watch overnight forecast updates from the Met Office for potential shifts ahead of resolution via London City Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Обсяг
$83,085Дата завершення
May 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 12°C as London's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Met Office forecasts indicating a maximum of 14°C amid bright spells but frequent heavy showers, hail risks, and a fresh northwesterly breeze gusting to 20 mph, which suppresses daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and unstable air. BBC Weather aligns closely with a 13°C high under light rain showers, yet traders favor slightly cooler outcomes like 12°C (38.5%) and 13°C (27%) over 14°C (13.5%), reflecting caution from recent underperformance of models during this unsettled low-pressure pattern—May 13's high hit around 13-14°C despite similar predictions. Climatological May highs average 17°C, but current below-normal conditions dominate; watch overnight forecast updates from the Met Office for potential shifts ahead of resolution via London City Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$83,085Дата завершення
May 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 38.5% implied probability for 12°C as London's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Met Office forecasts indicating a maximum of 14°C amid bright spells but frequent heavy showers, hail risks, and a fresh northwesterly breeze gusting to 20 mph, which suppresses daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and unstable air. BBC Weather aligns closely with a 13°C high under light rain showers, yet traders favor slightly cooler outcomes like 12°C (38.5%) and 13°C (27%) over 14°C (13.5%), reflecting caution from recent underperformance of models during this unsettled low-pressure pattern—May 13's high hit around 13-14°C despite similar predictions. Climatological May highs average 17°C, but current below-normal conditions dominate; watch overnight forecast updates from the Met Office for potential shifts ahead of resolution via London City Airport observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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