Recent ensemble guidance from the GFS and ECMWF models shows New York City’s overnight minimum on May 17 clustering in the low-to-mid 60s, supported by a mild southerly flow and increasing mid-level cloud cover that limits radiative cooling under light winds. This setup explains the tight clustering of trader consensus around the 62–65 °F bins, while wider spread in later model runs keeps modest probability on adjacent ranges. Mid-May climatology for Central Park typically centers near 53–55 °F, so the current warmer-than-normal airmass represents a notable positive departure that forecasters will refine with the next cycle of 00Z and 12Z updates.