Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 18?
64-65°F 27%
62-63°F 19%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
8%
58-59°F
11%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
27%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
9%
72°F or higher
5%
64-65°F 27%
62-63°F 19%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 18, 2026
53°F or below
$1,260 Обс.
1%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
5%
56-57°F
$23 Обс.
8%
58-59°F
$17 Обс.
11%
60-61°F
$12 Обс.
13%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
19%
64-65°F
$0 Обс.
27%
66-67°F
$0 Обс.
19%
68-69°F
$0 Обс.
19%
70-71°F
$0 Обс.
9%
72°F or higher
$20 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,333Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$1,333Дата завершення
May 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project New York City's lowest temperature on May 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F (64-65°F leading at 26.5% implied probability), driven by a building upper-level ridge over the Northeast fostering clear skies and light winds conducive to mild radiative cooling under a warm air mass. Differentiating factors include potential low-level moisture influx boosting higher bins (66-69°F) via cloud persistence, versus drier conditions and urban heat island amplification in Central Park observations favoring 62-63°F or below; historical May 18 lows average ~56°F, but recent spring warmth elevates baselines. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates today could shift odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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