Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a highest temperature of 13°C in Wellington today, mirroring MetService's official forecast of a 13°C daytime high and 9°C overnight low under mainly fine conditions with southeasterlies. Persistent southerly winds, strengthening over the past 24 hours to 20-30 km/h, have driven cool air advection from southern latitudes, capping peak temperatures well below the May climatological average of 14°C amid partial cloud cover that limits solar heating. Regional weather models, including ensemble guidance, exhibit strong agreement on subdued daytime maxima due to these steering patterns and low autumn sun angles. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt wind shift to warmer northerlies or unexpected clearing for enhanced insolation, though current trajectories and observations from Kelburn and airport stations make this unlikely; final daily records from MetService will confirm resolution by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on May 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 15?
13°C 99.6%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
НОВЕ
$51,043 Обс.
НОВЕ
$51,043 Обс.
May 15, 2026
13°C
100%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
13°C 99.6%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
НОВЕ
$51,043 Обс.
НОВЕ
$51,043 Обс.
May 15, 2026
13°C
$11,107 Обс.
100%
14°C
$8,150 Обс.
1%
15°C
$5,520 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$7,601 Обс.
<1%
17°C or higher
$3,911 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a highest temperature of 13°C in Wellington today, mirroring MetService's official forecast of a 13°C daytime high and 9°C overnight low under mainly fine conditions with southeasterlies. Persistent southerly winds, strengthening over the past 24 hours to 20-30 km/h, have driven cool air advection from southern latitudes, capping peak temperatures well below the May climatological average of 14°C amid partial cloud cover that limits solar heating. Regional weather models, including ensemble guidance, exhibit strong agreement on subdued daytime maxima due to these steering patterns and low autumn sun angles. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt wind shift to warmer northerlies or unexpected clearing for enhanced insolation, though current trajectories and observations from Kelburn and airport stations make this unlikely; final daily records from MetService will confirm resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$51,043Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a highest temperature of 13°C in Wellington today, mirroring MetService's official forecast of a 13°C daytime high and 9°C overnight low under mainly fine conditions with southeasterlies. Persistent southerly winds, strengthening over the past 24 hours to 20-30 km/h, have driven cool air advection from southern latitudes, capping peak temperatures well below the May climatological average of 14°C amid partial cloud cover that limits solar heating. Regional weather models, including ensemble guidance, exhibit strong agreement on subdued daytime maxima due to these steering patterns and low autumn sun angles. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt wind shift to warmer northerlies or unexpected clearing for enhanced insolation, though current trajectories and observations from Kelburn and airport stations make this unlikely; final daily records from MetService will confirm resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$51,043Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.6% implied probability to a highest temperature of 13°C in Wellington today, mirroring MetService's official forecast of a 13°C daytime high and 9°C overnight low under mainly fine conditions with southeasterlies. Persistent southerly winds, strengthening over the past 24 hours to 20-30 km/h, have driven cool air advection from southern latitudes, capping peak temperatures well below the May climatological average of 14°C amid partial cloud cover that limits solar heating. Regional weather models, including ensemble guidance, exhibit strong agreement on subdued daytime maxima due to these steering patterns and low autumn sun angles. Realistic challenges would require an abrupt wind shift to warmer northerlies or unexpected clearing for enhanced insolation, though current trajectories and observations from Kelburn and airport stations make this unlikely; final daily records from MetService will confirm resolution by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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