Market-implied probabilities place 37°C or higher at 48% for Karachi's peak temperature on May 17, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) recent outlook for persistent hot, dry conditions through May 19 amid an ongoing heatwave. Recent observations show highs of 34-37°C over the past week—5-7°C above May norms of around 35°C—fueled by a high-pressure ridge over the subcontinent, northerly continental winds, and suppressed sea breezes that typically moderate coastal heat. PMD anticipates near-normal to 2°C-above-normal temperatures in coastal Sindh, aligning with historical heatwave patterns where peaks routinely exceed 37°C under clear skies and low humidity. Key uncertainty stems from evolving sea breeze development; watch PMD's May 16 bulletin for updated model consensus.