The trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no Ebola emergency by June 30 stems primarily from the limited scale of the newly confirmed outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of mid-May 2026, Africa CDC and WHO report only 13 laboratory-confirmed cases amid 246 suspected infections and roughly 65 deaths, with rapid deployment of response teams and contact tracing underway in a region historically prone to contained flare-ups. This pattern aligns with most prior DRC outbreaks that resolved without triggering a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Key variables that could alter the outlook include accelerated cross-border transmission into Uganda or urban centers, or a sharp rise in confirmed cases exceeding typical containment thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоEbola emergency by June 30?
Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Only a WHO determination that Ebola, Ebola virus disease, or an outbreak of Ebola is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no Ebola emergency by June 30 stems primarily from the limited scale of the newly confirmed outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of mid-May 2026, Africa CDC and WHO report only 13 laboratory-confirmed cases amid 246 suspected infections and roughly 65 deaths, with rapid deployment of response teams and contact tracing underway in a region historically prone to contained flare-ups. This pattern aligns with most prior DRC outbreaks that resolved without triggering a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Key variables that could alter the outlook include accelerated cross-border transmission into Uganda or urban centers, or a sharp rise in confirmed cases exceeding typical containment thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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