Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 14°C (34%) for Milan today, with 13°C (28%) and 15°C (27%) close behind, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models. Persistent cloud cover and thundery showers from a low-pressure system over northern Italy are capping peak afternoon heating, steering implied probabilities away from May's climatological average of 22°C toward cooler outcomes akin to historical frontal passages. Key differentiators include exact timing of any cloud breaks between 2-5 PM and southerly winds modulating urban heat; minor model divergences (1-2°C spread) underscore this volatility. Watch hourly updates from Italy's Aeronautica Militare and Milan Linate Airport observations for resolution cues, with new runs expected midday.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Milan on May 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 15?
14°C 36%
13°C 29.7%
15°C 29%
16°C 8%
$41,358 Обс.
$41,358 Обс.
May 15, 2026
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
30%
14°C
36%
15°C
29%
16°C
8%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 36%
13°C 29.7%
15°C 29%
16°C 8%
$41,358 Обс.
$41,358 Обс.
May 15, 2026
10°C
$4,991 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$1,886 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$3,180 Обс.
1%
13°C
$3,808 Обс.
30%
14°C
$3,676 Обс.
36%
15°C
$3,146 Обс.
29%
16°C
$3,391 Обс.
8%
17°C
$5,100 Обс.
5%
18°C
$5,480 Обс.
<1%
19°C or higher
$6,110 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 14°C (34%) for Milan today, with 13°C (28%) and 15°C (27%) close behind, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models. Persistent cloud cover and thundery showers from a low-pressure system over northern Italy are capping peak afternoon heating, steering implied probabilities away from May's climatological average of 22°C toward cooler outcomes akin to historical frontal passages. Key differentiators include exact timing of any cloud breaks between 2-5 PM and southerly winds modulating urban heat; minor model divergences (1-2°C spread) underscore this volatility. Watch hourly updates from Italy's Aeronautica Militare and Milan Linate Airport observations for resolution cues, with new runs expected midday.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$41,358Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 14°C (34%) for Milan today, with 13°C (28%) and 15°C (27%) close behind, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models. Persistent cloud cover and thundery showers from a low-pressure system over northern Italy are capping peak afternoon heating, steering implied probabilities away from May's climatological average of 22°C toward cooler outcomes akin to historical frontal passages. Key differentiators include exact timing of any cloud breaks between 2-5 PM and southerly winds modulating urban heat; minor model divergences (1-2°C spread) underscore this volatility. Watch hourly updates from Italy's Aeronautica Militare and Milan Linate Airport observations for resolution cues, with new runs expected midday.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$41,358Дата завершення
May 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 14°C (34%) for Milan today, with 13°C (28%) and 15°C (27%) close behind, reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecast ensembles from ECMWF and GFS models. Persistent cloud cover and thundery showers from a low-pressure system over northern Italy are capping peak afternoon heating, steering implied probabilities away from May's climatological average of 22°C toward cooler outcomes akin to historical frontal passages. Key differentiators include exact timing of any cloud breaks between 2-5 PM and southerly winds modulating urban heat; minor model divergences (1-2°C spread) underscore this volatility. Watch hourly updates from Italy's Aeronautica Militare and Milan Linate Airport observations for resolution cues, with new runs expected midday.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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