Recent European model runs, including the ECMWF and ARPA Lombardia guidance, place Milan’s maximum temperature for May 17 near 21–22 °C under a transitional regime of weak high pressure and increasing mid-level moisture. This setup allows modest daytime radiative warming while afternoon cloud build-up and light northerly advection cap further rises, keeping readings within the narrow 20–23 °C window that now accounts for over 96 % of market-implied probability. The tight clustering between the 21 °C and 22 °C contracts reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of cloud cover rather than any broad forecast disagreement. Resolution will hinge on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at Malpensa International Airport, with any late-model shift in low-level humidity or insolation directly altering the final bracket.