Trader sentiment for Warsaw’s maximum temperature on May 17 centers on tight ensemble spreads from leading models such as ECMWF and GFS, which place the most probable daily high between 12 °C and 13 °C. This narrow range reflects current synoptic conditions dominated by a weak high-pressure ridge and limited warm-air advection, with afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introducing the primary uncertainty. Recent model runs show only modest shifts in the timing of any clearing skies, keeping the implied probabilities clustered around these two bins while assigning lower odds to 14 °C or higher. Official Polish meteorological guidance and satellite-derived temperature trends support this consensus, with resolution depending on the verified peak reading at the central Warsaw station before midnight local time.