Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET forecasts projecting a high of 25°C in São Paulo on May 16 under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of light showers and minimums around 14–17°C, driving the 36.5% implied probability for 25°C over 26°C at 30.5%. Close contention between these outcomes stems from model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles, where slight variations in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze strength could tip peaks 1°C higher via enhanced diurnal heating or lower via persistent overcast from a weakening post-frontal system. Recent stabilization after early May's cold snaps and highs near 26°C on May 13 has tempered extremes, with southerly winds limiting advection. INMET's May 15 afternoon update will clarify hourly trends ahead of resolution at the official Mirante de Santana station.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 16?
25°C 36%
26°C 31%
24°C 23%
27°C 7.8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
23%
25°C
36%
26°C
31%
27°C
8%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
1%
25°C 36%
26°C 31%
24°C 23%
27°C 7.8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 16, 2026
19°C or below
$916 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$847 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$323 Обс.
1%
22°C
$718 Обс.
1%
23°C
$1,151 Обс.
4%
24°C
$586 Обс.
23%
25°C
$651 Обс.
36%
26°C
$842 Обс.
31%
27°C
$289 Обс.
8%
28°C
$391 Обс.
2%
29°C or higher
$432 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET forecasts projecting a high of 25°C in São Paulo on May 16 under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of light showers and minimums around 14–17°C, driving the 36.5% implied probability for 25°C over 26°C at 30.5%. Close contention between these outcomes stems from model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles, where slight variations in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze strength could tip peaks 1°C higher via enhanced diurnal heating or lower via persistent overcast from a weakening post-frontal system. Recent stabilization after early May's cold snaps and highs near 26°C on May 13 has tempered extremes, with southerly winds limiting advection. INMET's May 15 afternoon update will clarify hourly trends ahead of resolution at the official Mirante de Santana station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,146Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET forecasts projecting a high of 25°C in São Paulo on May 16 under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of light showers and minimums around 14–17°C, driving the 36.5% implied probability for 25°C over 26°C at 30.5%. Close contention between these outcomes stems from model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles, where slight variations in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze strength could tip peaks 1°C higher via enhanced diurnal heating or lower via persistent overcast from a weakening post-frontal system. Recent stabilization after early May's cold snaps and highs near 26°C on May 13 has tempered extremes, with southerly winds limiting advection. INMET's May 15 afternoon update will clarify hourly trends ahead of resolution at the official Mirante de Santana station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$7,146Дата завершення
May 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET forecasts projecting a high of 25°C in São Paulo on May 16 under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of light showers and minimums around 14–17°C, driving the 36.5% implied probability for 25°C over 26°C at 30.5%. Close contention between these outcomes stems from model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles, where slight variations in afternoon cloud cover and sea breeze strength could tip peaks 1°C higher via enhanced diurnal heating or lower via persistent overcast from a weakening post-frontal system. Recent stabilization after early May's cold snaps and highs near 26°C on May 13 has tempered extremes, with southerly winds limiting advection. INMET's May 15 afternoon update will clarify hourly trends ahead of resolution at the official Mirante de Santana station.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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