Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models currently project a peak near 28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer-than-average air masses with minimal frontal activity. This setup exceeds the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos and supports the market’s 78% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May indicate such configurations rarely fall below the 23°C threshold absent an early cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 17?
23°C or higher 78%
22°C 17%
21°C 3.6%
20°C 3.1%
НОВЕ
$11,697 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,697 Обс.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
17%
23°C or higher
78%
23°C or higher 78%
22°C 17%
21°C 3.6%
20°C 3.1%
НОВЕ
$11,697 Обс.
НОВЕ
$11,697 Обс.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$1,439 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$652 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$983 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$1,005 Обс.
1%
17°C
$603 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$1,306 Обс.
1%
19°C
$718 Обс.
1%
20°C
$941 Обс.
3%
21°C
$903 Обс.
4%
22°C
$796 Обс.
17%
23°C or higher
$2,360 Обс.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models currently project a peak near 28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer-than-average air masses with minimal frontal activity. This setup exceeds the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos and supports the market’s 78% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May indicate such configurations rarely fall below the 23°C threshold absent an early cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,697Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models currently project a peak near 28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer-than-average air masses with minimal frontal activity. This setup exceeds the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos and supports the market’s 78% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May indicate such configurations rarely fall below the 23°C threshold absent an early cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$11,697Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGREnsemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Brazil’s INMET/CPTEC models currently project a peak near 28°C for São Paulo on May 17, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge advecting warmer-than-average air masses with minimal frontal activity. This setup exceeds the city’s May climatological average high of 22–23°C at São Paulo-Guarulhos and supports the market’s 78% implied probability for 23°C or higher. Light winds and partial cloud cover are expected to limit nocturnal cooling, while historical analogs from early-to-mid May indicate such configurations rarely fall below the 23°C threshold absent an early cold front. Updated model runs scheduled for tomorrow morning will provide final confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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