Ongoing Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine have produced repeated airspace incursions into NATO's eastern flank, with drones entering from Belarus or redirected by electronic warfare. NATO Baltic Air Policing and related missions have responded with fighter scrambles, resulting in the September 15 downing of a suspected Russian Geran-2 drone over Lithuania by Italian jets—the first such intercept in that country. Subsequent incidents, including a September 24 Romanian airspace violation that evaded interception, underscore the pattern of low-cost threats and variable response success. Heightened vigilance under initiatives like Eastern Sentry, combined with the frequency of border-adjacent operations, shapes trader views on the likelihood of another confirmed NATO intercept in the near term.