**The 94.5% implied probability that H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 reflects the bill’s repeated failure to advance past the Senate filibuster threshold despite multiple House passages.** The original H.R. 22 passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026 as the SAVE America Act (with related provisions also inserted into other measures such as the NDAA). It requires documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration. Republicans control 53 Senate seats and have been unable to secure the seven additional votes needed for cloture. One Republican senator (Lisa Murkowski) has already opposed proceeding, and Democratic support has not materialized. Efforts to bypass the 60-vote requirement through reconciliation, NDAA inclusion, or other vehicles have stalled as of mid-August 2026, with the Senate leaving for recess without action. With the 2026 midterms approaching and no scheduled path to enactment before year-end, trader consensus views successful Senate passage and presidential signature this calendar year as highly unlikely. Structural barriers—Senate rules, narrow majority, and lack of bipartisan consensus—continue to define the legislative outlook.