Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp upward revisions to UK energy price forecasts, prompting major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard to downgrade 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.4–0.5 percentage points to a 0.6–1.0 percent range. This external shock, layered on already subdued underlying growth signals from business surveys, has compressed expectations toward the lower end of historical norms. The Office for National Statistics’ May 14 release showed 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, slightly above consensus yet still consistent with annual outcomes clustering near 1 percent. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a tight contest between the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent buckets, with traders weighing the persistence of the energy drag against potential Bank of England easing and resilient services output as key swing factors ahead of further quarterly data and the June Monetary Policy Report.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4-5% 33.6%
<0 26%
3-4% 4.2%
0-1% 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Feb 12, 2027
<0
26%
0-1%
43%
1-2%
37%
2-3%
33%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
34%
5%+
27%
4-5% 33.6%
<0 26%
3-4% 4.2%
0-1% 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$345 Обс.
26%
0-1%
$386 Обс.
43%
1-2%
$210 Обс.
37%
2-3%
$247 Обс.
33%
3-4%
$201 Обс.
6%
4-5%
$428 Обс.
34%
5%+
$252 Обс.
27%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp upward revisions to UK energy price forecasts, prompting major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard to downgrade 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.4–0.5 percentage points to a 0.6–1.0 percent range. This external shock, layered on already subdued underlying growth signals from business surveys, has compressed expectations toward the lower end of historical norms. The Office for National Statistics’ May 14 release showed 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, slightly above consensus yet still consistent with annual outcomes clustering near 1 percent. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a tight contest between the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent buckets, with traders weighing the persistence of the energy drag against potential Bank of England easing and resilient services output as key swing factors ahead of further quarterly data and the June Monetary Policy Report.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,068Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp upward revisions to UK energy price forecasts, prompting major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard to downgrade 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.4–0.5 percentage points to a 0.6–1.0 percent range. This external shock, layered on already subdued underlying growth signals from business surveys, has compressed expectations toward the lower end of historical norms. The Office for National Statistics’ May 14 release showed 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, slightly above consensus yet still consistent with annual outcomes clustering near 1 percent. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a tight contest between the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent buckets, with traders weighing the persistence of the energy drag against potential Bank of England easing and resilient services output as key swing factors ahead of further quarterly data and the June Monetary Policy Report.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$2,068Дата завершення
Feb 12, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven sharp upward revisions to UK energy price forecasts, prompting major institutions including the IMF, OECD, and Vanguard to downgrade 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.4–0.5 percentage points to a 0.6–1.0 percent range. This external shock, layered on already subdued underlying growth signals from business surveys, has compressed expectations toward the lower end of historical norms. The Office for National Statistics’ May 14 release showed 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1 2026, slightly above consensus yet still consistent with annual outcomes clustering near 1 percent. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect a tight contest between the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent buckets, with traders weighing the persistence of the energy drag against potential Bank of England easing and resilient services output as key swing factors ahead of further quarterly data and the June Monetary Policy Report.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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