Incumbent Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong position in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, where traders assign her a 90% chance of victory against Republican state Sen. John Braun. The Cook Political Report’s October shift of the race from toss-up to lean Democrat reflects Perez’s fundraising edge—nearly $9.5 million raised versus Braun’s $3.3 million—and sustained outside spending exceeding $20 million from both parties. Braun, endorsed by former President Trump and backed by national Republican groups, has drawn attention through debates and ads, yet the district’s modest Democratic trend and Perez’s centrist record as a Blue Dog have anchored market pricing ahead of the November 3 general election.