Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a dominant 97.2% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases and demonstrated capabilities on key benchmarks in reasoning, safety, and multimodal performance. This positioning builds on iterative improvements that have strengthened competitive standing against rivals such as OpenAI and Google, with traders viewing the company's focus on aligned AI systems as a sustained edge. Resolution is imminent, so any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations before the cutoff could still influence outcomes. Scenarios that might realistically shift sentiment include a surprise model launch or benchmark breakthrough from another lab that surpasses current leader metrics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich company has best AI model end of August?
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Anthropic 97.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,810,946 Обс.
$1,810,946 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 97.2%
OpenAI 1.8%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,810,946 Обс.
$1,810,946 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$371,065 Обс.
97%
OpenAI
$154,559 Обс.
2%
$140,282 Обс.
1%
Meta
$149,044 Обс.
<1%
Alibaba
$139,142 Обс.
<1%
Z.ai
$149,014 Обс.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$152,263 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$225,813 Обс.
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Обс.
<1%
Bytedance
$103,190 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a dominant 97.2% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases and demonstrated capabilities on key benchmarks in reasoning, safety, and multimodal performance. This positioning builds on iterative improvements that have strengthened competitive standing against rivals such as OpenAI and Google, with traders viewing the company's focus on aligned AI systems as a sustained edge. Resolution is imminent, so any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations before the cutoff could still influence outcomes. Scenarios that might realistically shift sentiment include a surprise model launch or benchmark breakthrough from another lab that surpasses current leader metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,810,946Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a dominant 97.2% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases and demonstrated capabilities on key benchmarks in reasoning, safety, and multimodal performance. This positioning builds on iterative improvements that have strengthened competitive standing against rivals such as OpenAI and Google, with traders viewing the company's focus on aligned AI systems as a sustained edge. Resolution is imminent, so any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations before the cutoff could still influence outcomes. Scenarios that might realistically shift sentiment include a surprise model launch or benchmark breakthrough from another lab that surpasses current leader metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$1,810,946Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a dominant 97.2% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases and demonstrated capabilities on key benchmarks in reasoning, safety, and multimodal performance. This positioning builds on iterative improvements that have strengthened competitive standing against rivals such as OpenAI and Google, with traders viewing the company's focus on aligned AI systems as a sustained edge. Resolution is imminent, so any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations before the cutoff could still influence outcomes. Scenarios that might realistically shift sentiment include a surprise model launch or benchmark breakthrough from another lab that surpasses current leader metrics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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