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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Політика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

17% шанс
Polymarket

$589,732 Обс.

17% шанс
Polymarket

$589,732 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, including their May 2026 summit, has reinforced trader expectations that China will avoid invading Taiwan by the end of 2027. Xi highlighted the Taiwan issue as central to bilateral ties and warned of risks from poor handling, yet both sides maintained established positions without new escalations or agreements. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 further support this outlook, stating that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for unification by force. Routine PLA activities around the Taiwan Strait and responses to allied exercises continue, alongside stalled Taiwanese defense spending and limited cross-strait engagement through opposition channels. These developments reflect ongoing competition and deterrence rather than imminent conflict, aligning with the 83.5 percent implied probability for no invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$589,732
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, including their May 2026 summit, has reinforced trader expectations that China will avoid invading Taiwan by the end of 2027. Xi highlighted the Taiwan issue as central to bilateral ties and warned of risks from poor handling, yet both sides maintained established positions without new escalations or agreements. U.S. intelligence assessments from earlier in 2026 further support this outlook, stating that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for unification by force. Routine PLA activities around the Taiwan Strait and responses to allied exercises continue, alongside stalled Taiwanese defense spending and limited cross-strait engagement through opposition channels. These developments reflect ongoing competition and deterrence rather than imminent conflict, aligning with the 83.5 percent implied probability for no invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$589,732
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 17% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 17¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 17%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» згенерував $589.7K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 17, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» — 17% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 17% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.