Despite recent Iranian parliamentary proposals and official rhetoric threatening withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, no formal notification under Article X has been issued. Iranian officials continue to affirm ongoing NPT safeguards and IAEA verification commitments while engaging at the 2026 Review Conference. Historical patterns since 2004 show repeated threats without follow-through, reflecting calculated restraint amid risks of intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and loss of remaining international nuclear cooperation channels. Traders assign an overwhelming 91.8% probability to continued membership through 2026, viewing the stalled legislation and sustained compliance as decisive signals that escalation remains rhetorical rather than operational.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$121,662 Обс.
$121,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$121,662 Обс.
$121,662 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite recent Iranian parliamentary proposals and official rhetoric threatening withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, no formal notification under Article X has been issued. Iranian officials continue to affirm ongoing NPT safeguards and IAEA verification commitments while engaging at the 2026 Review Conference. Historical patterns since 2004 show repeated threats without follow-through, reflecting calculated restraint amid risks of intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and loss of remaining international nuclear cooperation channels. Traders assign an overwhelming 91.8% probability to continued membership through 2026, viewing the stalled legislation and sustained compliance as decisive signals that escalation remains rhetorical rather than operational.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$121,662Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Despite recent Iranian parliamentary proposals and official rhetoric threatening withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, no formal notification under Article X has been issued. Iranian officials continue to affirm ongoing NPT safeguards and IAEA verification commitments while engaging at the 2026 Review Conference. Historical patterns since 2004 show repeated threats without follow-through, reflecting calculated restraint amid risks of intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and loss of remaining international nuclear cooperation channels. Traders assign an overwhelming 91.8% probability to continued membership through 2026, viewing the stalled legislation and sustained compliance as decisive signals that escalation remains rhetorical rather than operational.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$121,662Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent Iranian parliamentary proposals and official rhetoric threatening withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, no formal notification under Article X has been issued. Iranian officials continue to affirm ongoing NPT safeguards and IAEA verification commitments while engaging at the 2026 Review Conference. Historical patterns since 2004 show repeated threats without follow-through, reflecting calculated restraint amid risks of intensified sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and loss of remaining international nuclear cooperation channels. Traders assign an overwhelming 91.8% probability to continued membership through 2026, viewing the stalled legislation and sustained compliance as decisive signals that escalation remains rhetorical rather than operational.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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