The market-implied 66.5% odds favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, reflect the infrequency of formal updates to its carbon budget calculations. These rely on annual global emissions inventories and remaining CO₂ allowances (roughly 130 GtCO₂ from early 2026 under 50% likelihood estimates) rather than quarterly fluctuations, with major revisions typically tied to IPCC-aligned reports or verified trend shifts. Recent records of 1.26–1.37°C human-induced warming through 2025 and accelerating rates have narrowed timelines in some projections to around 2029–2030 without triggering an immediate recalibration. Traders appear to weigh the absence of new observational data releases or model consensus changes before year-end as the dominant factor keeping the displayed deadline stable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
34% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 1, 2027
34% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The market-implied 66.5% odds favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, reflect the infrequency of formal updates to its carbon budget calculations. These rely on annual global emissions inventories and remaining CO₂ allowances (roughly 130 GtCO₂ from early 2026 under 50% likelihood estimates) rather than quarterly fluctuations, with major revisions typically tied to IPCC-aligned reports or verified trend shifts. Recent records of 1.26–1.37°C human-induced warming through 2025 and accelerating rates have narrowed timelines in some projections to around 2029–2030 without triggering an immediate recalibration. Traders appear to weigh the absence of new observational data releases or model consensus changes before year-end as the dominant factor keeping the displayed deadline stable.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,591Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2029Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The market-implied 66.5% odds favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, reflect the infrequency of formal updates to its carbon budget calculations. These rely on annual global emissions inventories and remaining CO₂ allowances (roughly 130 GtCO₂ from early 2026 under 50% likelihood estimates) rather than quarterly fluctuations, with major revisions typically tied to IPCC-aligned reports or verified trend shifts. Recent records of 1.26–1.37°C human-induced warming through 2025 and accelerating rates have narrowed timelines in some projections to around 2029–2030 without triggering an immediate recalibration. Traders appear to weigh the absence of new observational data releases or model consensus changes before year-end as the dominant factor keeping the displayed deadline stable.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Обсяг
$6,591Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 66.5% odds favoring no change in the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, reflect the infrequency of formal updates to its carbon budget calculations. These rely on annual global emissions inventories and remaining CO₂ allowances (roughly 130 GtCO₂ from early 2026 under 50% likelihood estimates) rather than quarterly fluctuations, with major revisions typically tied to IPCC-aligned reports or verified trend shifts. Recent records of 1.26–1.37°C human-induced warming through 2025 and accelerating rates have narrowed timelines in some projections to around 2029–2030 without triggering an immediate recalibration. Traders appear to weigh the absence of new observational data releases or model consensus changes before year-end as the dominant factor keeping the displayed deadline stable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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