The Polymarket consensus for a Republican margin of 0-5% in the Alabama governor race reflects the November 3, 2026, results in which Tommy Tuberville defeated Doug Jones by roughly four points, or about 66,000 votes, in an open-seat contest following term limits on Kay Ivey. Late-October polls showed Tuberville’s lead narrowing from double digits to the low single digits amid elevated Democratic turnout in urban counties such as Jefferson and Mobile, while Tuberville maintained strength in suburban and rural areas. This produced the closest Alabama gubernatorial margin since 2002. Final certification and any minor tabulation adjustments remain the primary variables that could still shift the precise bracket.