Recent easing in Russian inflation to 5.58% year-over-year in April 2026, down from 5.86% in March, alongside the Bank of Russia's April 24 decision to cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.50%—its eighth consecutive reduction—has positioned a further decrease as the dominant outcome ahead of the June 19 meeting. The central bank's updated guidance, projecting an average key rate of 14.0–14.5% for 2026 and noting sustainable disinflation toward the 4% target, has reinforced trader consensus for additional easing amid cooling price pressures and stable underlying inflation near 4–5% annualized. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external conditions keep a modest probability on no change, while an increase remains remote given the prevailing monetary policy trajectory.