Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election places the AfD at 17–18% across multiple surveys, including Infratest dimap (18%), Forsa (18%), and INSA (18%), supporting trader consensus favoring the Over 17% outcome at 62%. The party has roughly doubled its 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election amid national trends of voter frustration over immigration, housing costs, and federal governance under the CDU-SPD coalition. In Berlin, the AfD competes in a tight four-way race with the CDU (19–21%), Left (19–22%), and Greens (16–18%), while the SPD trails further back. No other parties will cooperate with the AfD, yet this firewall does not alter vote shares. With 16 days remaining, last-minute shifts in turnout or events in concurrent eastern state votes could still influence the final result.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBerlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?
Berlin State Election: AfD Over/Under 17%?
Over
62% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Over
62% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election places the AfD at 17–18% across multiple surveys, including Infratest dimap (18%), Forsa (18%), and INSA (18%), supporting trader consensus favoring the Over 17% outcome at 62%. The party has roughly doubled its 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election amid national trends of voter frustration over immigration, housing costs, and federal governance under the CDU-SPD coalition. In Berlin, the AfD competes in a tight four-way race with the CDU (19–21%), Left (19–22%), and Greens (16–18%), while the SPD trails further back. No other parties will cooperate with the AfD, yet this firewall does not alter vote shares. With 16 days remaining, last-minute shifts in turnout or events in concurrent eastern state votes could still influence the final result.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,416Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election places the AfD at 17–18% across multiple surveys, including Infratest dimap (18%), Forsa (18%), and INSA (18%), supporting trader consensus favoring the Over 17% outcome at 62%. The party has roughly doubled its 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election amid national trends of voter frustration over immigration, housing costs, and federal governance under the CDU-SPD coalition. In Berlin, the AfD competes in a tight four-way race with the CDU (19–21%), Left (19–22%), and Greens (16–18%), while the SPD trails further back. No other parties will cooperate with the AfD, yet this firewall does not alter vote shares. With 16 days remaining, last-minute shifts in turnout or events in concurrent eastern state votes could still influence the final result.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Khối lượng
$4,416Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 state election places the AfD at 17–18% across multiple surveys, including Infratest dimap (18%), Forsa (18%), and INSA (18%), supporting trader consensus favoring the Over 17% outcome at 62%. The party has roughly doubled its 9.1% share from the 2023 repeat election amid national trends of voter frustration over immigration, housing costs, and federal governance under the CDU-SPD coalition. In Berlin, the AfD competes in a tight four-way race with the CDU (19–21%), Left (19–22%), and Greens (16–18%), while the SPD trails further back. No other parties will cooperate with the AfD, yet this firewall does not alter vote shares. With 16 days remaining, last-minute shifts in turnout or events in concurrent eastern state votes could still influence the final result.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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