Traders see the 40-64 tweet bin as the clearest favorite for Elon Musk’s output over the July 4-6 holiday weekend because his documented baseline of 30-70 daily posts typically drops during U.S. long weekends when political, business, and Tesla/SpaceX news cycles slow. Recent three-day windows around similar holidays have shown moderated volume, with averages clustering closer to the low end of his range rather than the triple-digit spikes that occur during active news periods. With the July 4 holiday falling on a Saturday, fewer real-time developments are expected to pull him into extended threads, supporting the market’s current consensus around roughly 13-21 posts per day. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise announcements could still shift momentum, but the holiday timing remains the dominant factor anchoring these implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật40-64 55%
65-89 29%
<40 14%
90-114 5.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 6, 2026
<40
14%
40-64
55%
65-89
29%
90-114
25%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 55%
65-89 29%
<40 14%
90-114 5.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 6, 2026
<40
$17 KL.
14%
40-64
$10 KL.
55%
65-89
$5 KL.
29%
90-114
$90 KL.
25%
115-139
$5 KL.
1%
140-164
$46 KL.
1%
165-189
$206 KL.
1%
190-214
$98 KL.
1%
215-239
$54 KL.
1%
240+
$257 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 4 12:00 PM ET to July 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders see the 40-64 tweet bin as the clearest favorite for Elon Musk’s output over the July 4-6 holiday weekend because his documented baseline of 30-70 daily posts typically drops during U.S. long weekends when political, business, and Tesla/SpaceX news cycles slow. Recent three-day windows around similar holidays have shown moderated volume, with averages clustering closer to the low end of his range rather than the triple-digit spikes that occur during active news periods. With the July 4 holiday falling on a Saturday, fewer real-time developments are expected to pull him into extended threads, supporting the market’s current consensus around roughly 13-21 posts per day. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise announcements could still shift momentum, but the holiday timing remains the dominant factor anchoring these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 4 12:00 PM ET to July 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Jul 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$787Ngày kết thúc
Jul 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 4 12:00 PM ET to July 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders see the 40-64 tweet bin as the clearest favorite for Elon Musk’s output over the July 4-6 holiday weekend because his documented baseline of 30-70 daily posts typically drops during U.S. long weekends when political, business, and Tesla/SpaceX news cycles slow. Recent three-day windows around similar holidays have shown moderated volume, with averages clustering closer to the low end of his range rather than the triple-digit spikes that occur during active news periods. With the July 4 holiday falling on a Saturday, fewer real-time developments are expected to pull him into extended threads, supporting the market’s current consensus around roughly 13-21 posts per day. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise announcements could still shift momentum, but the holiday timing remains the dominant factor anchoring these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 4 12:00 PM ET to July 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$787Ngày kết thúc
Jul 6, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 40-64 tweet bin as the clearest favorite for Elon Musk’s output over the July 4-6 holiday weekend because his documented baseline of 30-70 daily posts typically drops during U.S. long weekends when political, business, and Tesla/SpaceX news cycles slow. Recent three-day windows around similar holidays have shown moderated volume, with averages clustering closer to the low end of his range rather than the triple-digit spikes that occur during active news periods. With the July 4 holiday falling on a Saturday, fewer real-time developments are expected to pull him into extended threads, supporting the market’s current consensus around roughly 13-21 posts per day. Upcoming chart updates or any surprise announcements could still shift momentum, but the holiday timing remains the dominant factor anchoring these implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp