Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Rep. Eric Swalwell will not face arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of charges or warrants despite multiple probes into sexual assault allegations that surfaced in early April 2026. Swalwell resigned from Congress and suspended his California governor bid after accusations from several women prompted investigations by the Department of Justice, Manhattan District Attorney, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, and House Ethics Committee, yet no indictments have emerged over a month later amid standard procedural timelines for evidence review and potential grand jury action. Yesterday's arrest of former donor Stephen Cloobeck on witness tampering charges underscores scrutiny around the case but does not signal imminent action against Swalwell, who denies the claims; a rapid escalation via new evidence or prosecutorial breakthroughs remains a slim possibility to shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$12,776 KL.
$12,776 KL.
May 31, 2026
$12,776 KL.
$12,776 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Rep. Eric Swalwell will not face arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of charges or warrants despite multiple probes into sexual assault allegations that surfaced in early April 2026. Swalwell resigned from Congress and suspended his California governor bid after accusations from several women prompted investigations by the Department of Justice, Manhattan District Attorney, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, and House Ethics Committee, yet no indictments have emerged over a month later amid standard procedural timelines for evidence review and potential grand jury action. Yesterday's arrest of former donor Stephen Cloobeck on witness tampering charges underscores scrutiny around the case but does not signal imminent action against Swalwell, who denies the claims; a rapid escalation via new evidence or prosecutorial breakthroughs remains a slim possibility to shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,776Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Rep. Eric Swalwell will not face arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of charges or warrants despite multiple probes into sexual assault allegations that surfaced in early April 2026. Swalwell resigned from Congress and suspended his California governor bid after accusations from several women prompted investigations by the Department of Justice, Manhattan District Attorney, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, and House Ethics Committee, yet no indictments have emerged over a month later amid standard procedural timelines for evidence review and potential grand jury action. Yesterday's arrest of former donor Stephen Cloobeck on witness tampering charges underscores scrutiny around the case but does not signal imminent action against Swalwell, who denies the claims; a rapid escalation via new evidence or prosecutorial breakthroughs remains a slim possibility to shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$12,776Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Rep. Eric Swalwell will not face arrest by May 31, driven by the absence of charges or warrants despite multiple probes into sexual assault allegations that surfaced in early April 2026. Swalwell resigned from Congress and suspended his California governor bid after accusations from several women prompted investigations by the Department of Justice, Manhattan District Attorney, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department, and House Ethics Committee, yet no indictments have emerged over a month later amid standard procedural timelines for evidence review and potential grand jury action. Yesterday's arrest of former donor Stephen Cloobeck on witness tampering charges underscores scrutiny around the case but does not signal imminent action against Swalwell, who denies the claims; a rapid escalation via new evidence or prosecutorial breakthroughs remains a slim possibility to shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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