Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—has shifted trader sentiment toward a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and energy price pressures are prompting markets to price in a 25-basis-point increase as early as December, per CME FedWatch probabilities. This contrasts with earlier expectations of further easing, highlighting how sticky core inflation readings are now weighing against labor market softening signals. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release for clearer signals on whether monetary policy will pivot from its current data-dependent stance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$148,571 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
27%
$148,571 KL.
June Meeting
$14,616 KL.
1%
July Meeting
$1,008 KL.
6%
September Meeting
$161 KL.
16%
October Meeting
$1,477 KL.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—has shifted trader sentiment toward a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and energy price pressures are prompting markets to price in a 25-basis-point increase as early as December, per CME FedWatch probabilities. This contrasts with earlier expectations of further easing, highlighting how sticky core inflation readings are now weighing against labor market softening signals. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release for clearer signals on whether monetary policy will pivot from its current data-dependent stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$148,571Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—has shifted trader sentiment toward a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and energy price pressures are prompting markets to price in a 25-basis-point increase as early as December, per CME FedWatch probabilities. This contrasts with earlier expectations of further easing, highlighting how sticky core inflation readings are now weighing against labor market softening signals. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release for clearer signals on whether monetary policy will pivot from its current data-dependent stance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$148,571Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data, showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—has shifted trader sentiment toward a potential Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range holding at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting, resilient consumer spending and energy price pressures are prompting markets to price in a 25-basis-point increase as early as December, per CME FedWatch probabilities. This contrasts with earlier expectations of further easing, highlighting how sticky core inflation readings are now weighing against labor market softening signals. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release for clearer signals on whether monetary policy will pivot from its current data-dependent stance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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