Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polling in the June 2 primary at 25-35 percent, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman each topping out in the low-to-mid 20s and the remaining field in single digits. High undecided shares, often exceeding 40 percent in UCLA surveys, have not consolidated behind any contender. Recent debates on homelessness, crime, and wildfire response have sharpened contrasts without producing a surge for any single candidate. Los Angeles uses a nonpartisan primary system in which a candidate must secure a majority to win outright; otherwise the top two advance to the November runoff. With the field this fragmented and no frontrunner approaching 50 percent support, traders assign overwhelming probability to a runoff.