Incumbent-like favorite Jerry Carl commands trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win the AL-01 Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his prior congressional service, strong name recognition, and dominance in Mobile County despite a fragmented field. A May 2-4 PI poll for Alabama Daily News showed State Rep. Rhett Marques surging to a narrow 27-21% lead over Carl among likely voters, with 45% undecided and Joshua McKee at 4%, reflecting Marques' fundraising strength and endorsements like Sen. Katie Britt's. High undecideds and no post-poll shifts leave room for Carl consolidation, potentially avoiding a June 16 runoff in this open seat race vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAL-01 Republican Primary Winner
AL-01 Republican Primary Winner
Jerry Carl 72%
Austin Sidwell 15.2%
Rhett Marques 8%
James Dees 2.4%
$40,572 KL.
$40,572 KL.
May 19, 2026
Jerry Carl
69%
Austin Sidwell
15%
Rhett Marques
26%
James Dees
2%
James Richardson
2%
Joshua McKee
2%
John Mills
1%
Jerry Carl 72%
Austin Sidwell 15.2%
Rhett Marques 8%
James Dees 2.4%
$40,572 KL.
$40,572 KL.
May 19, 2026
Jerry Carl
$1,208 KL.
69%
Austin Sidwell
$13,603 KL.
15%
Rhett Marques
$297 KL.
26%
James Dees
$4,297 KL.
2%
James Richardson
$5,651 KL.
2%
Joshua McKee
$174 KL.
2%
John Mills
$15,342 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent-like favorite Jerry Carl commands trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win the AL-01 Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his prior congressional service, strong name recognition, and dominance in Mobile County despite a fragmented field. A May 2-4 PI poll for Alabama Daily News showed State Rep. Rhett Marques surging to a narrow 27-21% lead over Carl among likely voters, with 45% undecided and Joshua McKee at 4%, reflecting Marques' fundraising strength and endorsements like Sen. Katie Britt's. High undecideds and no post-poll shifts leave room for Carl consolidation, potentially avoiding a June 16 runoff in this open seat race vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$40,572Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent-like favorite Jerry Carl commands trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win the AL-01 Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his prior congressional service, strong name recognition, and dominance in Mobile County despite a fragmented field. A May 2-4 PI poll for Alabama Daily News showed State Rep. Rhett Marques surging to a narrow 27-21% lead over Carl among likely voters, with 45% undecided and Joshua McKee at 4%, reflecting Marques' fundraising strength and endorsements like Sen. Katie Britt's. High undecideds and no post-poll shifts leave room for Carl consolidation, potentially avoiding a June 16 runoff in this open seat race vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Khối lượng
$40,572Ngày kết thúc
May 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 26, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent-like favorite Jerry Carl commands trader consensus at 68.5% implied probability to win the AL-01 Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his prior congressional service, strong name recognition, and dominance in Mobile County despite a fragmented field. A May 2-4 PI poll for Alabama Daily News showed State Rep. Rhett Marques surging to a narrow 27-21% lead over Carl among likely voters, with 45% undecided and Joshua McKee at 4%, reflecting Marques' fundraising strength and endorsements like Sen. Katie Britt's. High undecideds and no post-poll shifts leave room for Carl consolidation, potentially avoiding a June 16 runoff in this open seat race vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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