Byron Donalds maintains a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, with recent polling averages placing him near 47-50% support among likely voters, leaving the remaining candidates—including investor James Fishback—competing for a much smaller share. Fishback, who launched his bid in late 2025 as a long-shot contender emphasizing affordability, housing policy, and limits on development, has drawn some online attention and stronger numbers among younger voters in earlier surveys but registers in the single digits or low teens across most recent statewide polls conducted in July and August 2026. With the primary scheduled for August 18, limited name recognition, competition from higher-profile figures such as Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, and no evidence of a late surge, traders assign the highest probability to Fishback finishing below 15% of the vote.