In Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, trader consensus favors Republicans at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's R+6 partisan voter index and historical GOP dominance in Senate contests despite Joni Ernst's retirement. Recent April Echelon Insights polls showed hypothetical general election matchups tied or narrowly favoring Democrats Josh Turek (46%-45%) or Zach Wahls (46%-44%) against frontrunner Rep. Ashley Hinson, but traders discount these amid Iowa's strong Republican base and higher GOP midterm turnout base rates. The May 6 Democratic primary debate highlighted clashes on immigration and finance, with Turek surging to a 53%-27% lead over Wahls in a May PPP poll. June 2 primaries will clarify nominees, potentially tightening the contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIowa Senate Election Winner
Iowa Senate Election Winner
$115,566 KL.
$115,566 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
61%
Democrat
41%
$115,566 KL.
$115,566 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$52,741 KL.
61%
Democrat
$62,825 KL.
41%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, trader consensus favors Republicans at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's R+6 partisan voter index and historical GOP dominance in Senate contests despite Joni Ernst's retirement. Recent April Echelon Insights polls showed hypothetical general election matchups tied or narrowly favoring Democrats Josh Turek (46%-45%) or Zach Wahls (46%-44%) against frontrunner Rep. Ashley Hinson, but traders discount these amid Iowa's strong Republican base and higher GOP midterm turnout base rates. The May 6 Democratic primary debate highlighted clashes on immigration and finance, with Turek surging to a 53%-27% lead over Wahls in a May PPP poll. June 2 primaries will clarify nominees, potentially tightening the contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Khối lượng
$115,566Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.In Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, trader consensus favors Republicans at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's R+6 partisan voter index and historical GOP dominance in Senate contests despite Joni Ernst's retirement. Recent April Echelon Insights polls showed hypothetical general election matchups tied or narrowly favoring Democrats Josh Turek (46%-45%) or Zach Wahls (46%-44%) against frontrunner Rep. Ashley Hinson, but traders discount these amid Iowa's strong Republican base and higher GOP midterm turnout base rates. The May 6 Democratic primary debate highlighted clashes on immigration and finance, with Turek surging to a 53%-27% lead over Wahls in a May PPP poll. June 2 primaries will clarify nominees, potentially tightening the contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$115,566Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, trader consensus favors Republicans at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's R+6 partisan voter index and historical GOP dominance in Senate contests despite Joni Ernst's retirement. Recent April Echelon Insights polls showed hypothetical general election matchups tied or narrowly favoring Democrats Josh Turek (46%-45%) or Zach Wahls (46%-44%) against frontrunner Rep. Ashley Hinson, but traders discount these amid Iowa's strong Republican base and higher GOP midterm turnout base rates. The May 6 Democratic primary debate highlighted clashes on immigration and finance, with Turek surging to a 53%-27% lead over Wahls in a May PPP poll. June 2 primaries will clarify nominees, potentially tightening the contest.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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