Marcus Carter leads trader consensus at 50% implied probability in the FL-09 Republican primary following his endorsement last week by the American Patriot Executive Committee, bolstering his name recognition from the 2024 general election cycle. Thomas Chalifoux holds second at 28.5% after self-funding an additional $3 million into his campaign three days ago, building on prior personal investments and his veteran background to challenge the incumbent Democrat in the redrawn district now boasting stronger GOP prospects with 41% Hispanic voters. Fighter pilot Justin Story surged to 26.5% with his formal entry confirmed two days ago, while Jorge Malavet and Howard Steven Rance trail amid limited recent momentum ahead of the August 18 primary. No public polls exist, leaving odds driven by fundraising and endorsements.