Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 83% implied probability for Florida's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in a reliably red North Florida area spanning Tallahassee and Panama City. Incumbent Rep. Neal Dunn's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded GOP primary field of over 10 candidates ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats face a fragmented field of at least three contenders likely splitting their vote. A May 6 Republican debate hosted by the Bay County GOP underscored primary competitiveness but reinforced the party's general election dominance, with no recent polling or Democratic surges challenging the structural GOP advantage amid historical incumbent-free win rates above 80% in similar districts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFL-02 House Election Winner
FL-02 House Election Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,278 KL.
83%
Democratic Party
$2,632 KL.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 83% implied probability for Florida's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in a reliably red North Florida area spanning Tallahassee and Panama City. Incumbent Rep. Neal Dunn's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded GOP primary field of over 10 candidates ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats face a fragmented field of at least three contenders likely splitting their vote. A May 6 Republican debate hosted by the Bay County GOP underscored primary competitiveness but reinforced the party's general election dominance, with no recent polling or Democratic surges challenging the structural GOP advantage amid historical incumbent-free win rates above 80% in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$6,910Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 83% implied probability for Florida's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in a reliably red North Florida area spanning Tallahassee and Panama City. Incumbent Rep. Neal Dunn's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded GOP primary field of over 10 candidates ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats face a fragmented field of at least three contenders likely splitting their vote. A May 6 Republican debate hosted by the Bay County GOP underscored primary competitiveness but reinforced the party's general election dominance, with no recent polling or Democratic surges challenging the structural GOP advantage amid historical incumbent-free win rates above 80% in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$6,910Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 83% implied probability for Florida's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong Republican lean in a reliably red North Florida area spanning Tallahassee and Panama City. Incumbent Rep. Neal Dunn's January retirement opened the race, drawing a crowded GOP primary field of over 10 candidates ahead of the August 18 primary, while Democrats face a fragmented field of at least three contenders likely splitting their vote. A May 6 Republican debate hosted by the Bay County GOP underscored primary competitiveness but reinforced the party's general election dominance, with no recent polling or Democratic surges challenging the structural GOP advantage amid historical incumbent-free win rates above 80% in similar districts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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