The solidly Republican composition of Georgia’s 3rd congressional district, combined with incumbent Brian Jack’s fundraising edge and name recognition against challenger Maura Keller, anchors trader consensus around a 15-20 point Republican margin of victory. Election-night returns showing Jack at roughly 58-59 percent to Keller’s 41 percent produced an observed spread near 17 points, aligning with the leading market outcome while leaving modest probability on adjacent 20-25 and 25-30 point bands. Limited late-cycle polling and the absence of major scandals or turnout surprises in the final weeks kept the projected range narrow, with structural factors such as the district’s consistent double-digit Republican tilt in recent presidential cycles reinforcing the current pricing. Any remaining resolution uncertainty centers on final certified vote totals and whether late-counted absentee or provisional ballots materially shift the exact margin.