Republican nominee Houston Gaines secured a roughly 7-point victory over Democrat Pamela DeLancy in Georgia’s 10th congressional district on November 3, 2026, an open-seat contest following the prior incumbent’s Senate bid. Partial and near-complete vote counts place the final margin squarely inside the 5-10% band, consistent with the district’s longstanding Republican lean of 18-21 points in recent presidential and House cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the 87.5% probability on that interval incorporates the absence of a runoff trigger and the limited swing observed relative to baseline partisan metrics. Other listed outcomes, including narrower or wider Republican edges, carry sharply lower implied probabilities given the reported tallies.