Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window and Kimi Delta Attention architecture, currently anchors trader sentiment on the market. The model has posted roughly 43.5% on the text-only HLE without tools and up to 56% in tool-augmented or agentic configurations, placing it among the stronger open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5 leaders at 59–61%. Continued gains depend on Moonshot’s open-weight fine-tuning ecosystem, expanded tool integration, and any K3 variants or successors before year-end, while HLE’s expert-curated difficulty across math, science, and humanities limits rapid saturation. Traders watch for new capability demonstrations or competitive Chinese releases that could shift the frontier before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$64,950 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
87%
50%+
36%
55%+
20%
60%+
11%
65%+
8%
$64,950 KL.
45%+
$15,681 KL.
87%
50%+
$25,834 KL.
36%
55%+
$11,870 KL.
20%
60%+
$9,733 KL.
11%
65%+
$1,832 KL.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window and Kimi Delta Attention architecture, currently anchors trader sentiment on the market. The model has posted roughly 43.5% on the text-only HLE without tools and up to 56% in tool-augmented or agentic configurations, placing it among the stronger open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5 leaders at 59–61%. Continued gains depend on Moonshot’s open-weight fine-tuning ecosystem, expanded tool integration, and any K3 variants or successors before year-end, while HLE’s expert-curated difficulty across math, science, and humanities limits rapid saturation. Traders watch for new capability demonstrations or competitive Chinese releases that could shift the frontier before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$64,950Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window and Kimi Delta Attention architecture, currently anchors trader sentiment on the market. The model has posted roughly 43.5% on the text-only HLE without tools and up to 56% in tool-augmented or agentic configurations, placing it among the stronger open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5 leaders at 59–61%. Continued gains depend on Moonshot’s open-weight fine-tuning ecosystem, expanded tool integration, and any K3 variants or successors before year-end, while HLE’s expert-curated difficulty across math, science, and humanities limits rapid saturation. Traders watch for new capability demonstrations or competitive Chinese releases that could shift the frontier before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$64,950Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://agi.safe.ai/Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window and Kimi Delta Attention architecture, currently anchors trader sentiment on the market. The model has posted roughly 43.5% on the text-only HLE without tools and up to 56% in tool-augmented or agentic configurations, placing it among the stronger open-weight entries but behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5 leaders at 59–61%. Continued gains depend on Moonshot’s open-weight fine-tuning ecosystem, expanded tool integration, and any K3 variants or successors before year-end, while HLE’s expert-curated difficulty across math, science, and humanities limits rapid saturation. Traders watch for new capability demonstrations or competitive Chinese releases that could shift the frontier before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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