Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
36°C 43%
37°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 19, 2026
33°C or below
1%
34°C
7%
35°C
14%
36°C
43%
37°C
34%
38°C
8%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
36°C 43%
37°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 19, 2026
33°C or below
$530 KL.
1%
34°C
$1,691 KL.
7%
35°C
$1,150 KL.
14%
36°C
$1,333 KL.
43%
37°C
$720 KL.
34%
38°C
$1,159 KL.
8%
39°C
$478 KL.
1%
40°C
$356 KL.
<1%
41°C
$150 KL.
<1%
42°C
$150 KL.
<1%
43°C or higher
$306 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ET
Khối lượng
$8,024Ngày kết thúc
Jun 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$8,024Ngày kết thúc
Jun 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET guidance pegs Madrid’s June 19 maximum at 36 °C at Retiro station, aligning with the market’s leading 42.5 % implied probability for that outcome while the 34 % for 37 °C reflects lingering ensemble spread in ECMWF and GFS runs. Clear skies, weak pressure gradients, and subsiding air under a strengthening subtropical ridge are expected to limit mixing and allow efficient surface heating, yet small differences in 850 hPa temperatures or afternoon wind speeds of just 2–3 m/s could shift the peak by one degree. With resolution only 48 hours away, traders are weighting the official deterministic forecast most heavily while discounting lower-probability Saharan-air intrusions that could push readings higher.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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