Ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF currently favor a transient high-pressure ridge over northern France, promoting mostly sunny skies, light winds, and efficient daytime heating that supports afternoon maxima near 34–36 °C in central Paris on August 12. The urban heat-island effect, combined with low soil moisture from recent dry conditions, adds 1–2 °C to baseline readings relative to surrounding rural stations. Model consensus places the most likely peak in the mid-30s, aligning with the market’s heaviest volume on 35 °C (47.5 %) and 34 °C (30.5 %), while the smaller probabilities on 36–37 °C reflect residual uncertainty in exact ridge timing and any late marine-air intrusion. Updated runs expected within 24–48 hours will refine these ranges ahead of resolution.