Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 70.5%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.7%
$26,909,411 KL.
$26,909,411 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
71%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
3%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
2%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
1%
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 70.5%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.7%
$26,909,411 KL.
$26,909,411 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
$4,188,430 KL.
71%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
$1,244,767 KL.
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
$1,204,227 KL.
7%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
$1,113,801 KL.
3%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
$1,195,642 KL.
2%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
$1,417,195 KL.
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
$2,488,047 KL.
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
$1,322,931 KL.
<1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
$1,731,177 KL.
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
$2,454,087 KL.
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
$3,122,361 KL.
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
$3,272,494 KL.
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
$2,156,063 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,909,411Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$26,909,411Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have priced in a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market's assessment of sticky inflation and resilient economic data. April 2026 CPI readings came in hotter than expected, driven by elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures showed limited progress toward the 2% target. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range after the April FOMC meeting and labor market conditions remaining firm, forward-looking projections from major brokerages have shifted cuts into 2027. Upcoming June and July inflation releases, along with the next Summary of Economic Projections, will likely determine whether any modest easing materializes later in the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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