Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$43,347 KL.
$43,347 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
3%
$43,347 KL.
$43,347 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$28,893 KL.
97%
Republican Party
$14,454 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$43,347Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$43,347Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp