The 2026 Senate map presents Republicans with a structurally favorable set of races, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 49–51 seats because Democrats hold two competitive defenses in Georgia and Michigan while several Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine remain open or narrowly rated. Recent primary results and early polling have shown modest movement in these battlegrounds without producing decisive leads for either party, reflecting the limited number of truly contested contests and the historical difficulty of large midterm swings. Upcoming developments that could widen the range include sustained economic indicators, legislative outcomes on appropriations, and candidate recruitment in the remaining primaries, all of which traders are weighing against established base rates for incumbent-party performance in the sixth year of a presidential term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,298,236 KL.
$2,298,236 KL.
≤47
26%
48
10%
49
16%
50
19%
51
16%
52
6%
53
3%
54
2%
55
1%
56
1%
57+
3%
$2,298,236 KL.
$2,298,236 KL.
≤47
$76,958 KL.
26%
48
$29,873 KL.
10%
49
$25,875 KL.
16%
50
$79,939 KL.
19%
51
$175,820 KL.
16%
52
$524,323 KL.
6%
53
$32,582 KL.
3%
54
$728,384 KL.
2%
55
$413,949 KL.
1%
56
$159,133 KL.
1%
57+
$51,425 KL.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The 2026 Senate map presents Republicans with a structurally favorable set of races, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 49–51 seats because Democrats hold two competitive defenses in Georgia and Michigan while several Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine remain open or narrowly rated. Recent primary results and early polling have shown modest movement in these battlegrounds without producing decisive leads for either party, reflecting the limited number of truly contested contests and the historical difficulty of large midterm swings. Upcoming developments that could widen the range include sustained economic indicators, legislative outcomes on appropriations, and candidate recruitment in the remaining primaries, all of which traders are weighing against established base rates for incumbent-party performance in the sixth year of a presidential term.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,298,236Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The 2026 Senate map presents Republicans with a structurally favorable set of races, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 49–51 seats because Democrats hold two competitive defenses in Georgia and Michigan while several Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine remain open or narrowly rated. Recent primary results and early polling have shown modest movement in these battlegrounds without producing decisive leads for either party, reflecting the limited number of truly contested contests and the historical difficulty of large midterm swings. Upcoming developments that could widen the range include sustained economic indicators, legislative outcomes on appropriations, and candidate recruitment in the remaining primaries, all of which traders are weighing against established base rates for incumbent-party performance in the sixth year of a presidential term.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$2,298,236Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 Senate map presents Republicans with a structurally favorable set of races, yet trader pricing clusters tightly around 49–51 seats because Democrats hold two competitive defenses in Georgia and Michigan while several Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine remain open or narrowly rated. Recent primary results and early polling have shown modest movement in these battlegrounds without producing decisive leads for either party, reflecting the limited number of truly contested contests and the historical difficulty of large midterm swings. Upcoming developments that could widen the range include sustained economic indicators, legislative outcomes on appropriations, and candidate recruitment in the remaining primaries, all of which traders are weighing against established base rates for incumbent-party performance in the sixth year of a presidential term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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