Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's leading outcome at 7 with a 63% implied probability. The group includes Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville (pursuing the Alabama governorship), and Alan Armstrong, whose March 2026 retirement decision completed the current tally. These departures span multiple cycles of announcements stretching back to mid-2025, driven by factors such as age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices. No additional Republican Senate retirements have been declared in the past two months, which has stabilized trader consensus around the existing count. Further announcements before filing deadlines could still move probabilities toward 8 or 6, though current positioning reflects the absence of new developments through mid-May.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật7 64%
11 18.3%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,769 KL.
$73,769 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
5%
6
10%
7
64%
8
19%
9
4%
10
4%
11
18%
12+
2%
7 64%
11 18.3%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,769 KL.
$73,769 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$20,070 KL.
1%
5
$15,535 KL.
5%
6
$26,450 KL.
10%
7
$2,145 KL.
64%
8
$1,599 KL.
19%
9
$1,328 KL.
4%
10
$1,303 KL.
4%
11
$923 KL.
18%
12+
$4,416 KL.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's leading outcome at 7 with a 63% implied probability. The group includes Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville (pursuing the Alabama governorship), and Alan Armstrong, whose March 2026 retirement decision completed the current tally. These departures span multiple cycles of announcements stretching back to mid-2025, driven by factors such as age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices. No additional Republican Senate retirements have been declared in the past two months, which has stabilized trader consensus around the existing count. Further announcements before filing deadlines could still move probabilities toward 8 or 6, though current positioning reflects the absence of new developments through mid-May.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$73,769Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's leading outcome at 7 with a 63% implied probability. The group includes Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville (pursuing the Alabama governorship), and Alan Armstrong, whose March 2026 retirement decision completed the current tally. These departures span multiple cycles of announcements stretching back to mid-2025, driven by factors such as age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices. No additional Republican Senate retirements have been declared in the past two months, which has stabilized trader consensus around the existing count. Further announcements before filing deadlines could still move probabilities toward 8 or 6, though current positioning reflects the absence of new developments through mid-May.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$73,769Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, anchoring the market's leading outcome at 7 with a 63% implied probability. The group includes Mitch McConnell, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Tommy Tuberville (pursuing the Alabama governorship), and Alan Armstrong, whose March 2026 retirement decision completed the current tally. These departures span multiple cycles of announcements stretching back to mid-2025, driven by factors such as age, primary pressures, and shifts toward other offices. No additional Republican Senate retirements have been declared in the past two months, which has stabilized trader consensus around the existing count. Further announcements before filing deadlines could still move probabilities toward 8 or 6, though current positioning reflects the absence of new developments through mid-May.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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