As of early August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin at 43 percent. Senior members including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, and Jan Schakowsky cited age and a desire for generational turnover following the party’s 2024 losses, while others such as Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen pointed to mid-decade redistricting that altered their districts. Additional exits stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and a handful of primary defeats. With the count already near the upper end of the tightest range and Republican departures outpacing Democrats, traders weigh the likelihood of further announcements or primary challenges before November against historical patterns of late-cycle stability. The 24–27 bin’s 35 percent share reflects uncertainty over how many more seats could open before filing deadlines close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật20–23 42.0%
24–27 36%
28–31 5.3%
40+ 4.7%
$45,689 KL.
$45,689 KL.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
1%
20–23
43%
24–27
36%
28–31
5%
32–35
2%
36–39
<1%
40+
5%
20–23 42.0%
24–27 36%
28–31 5.3%
40+ 4.7%
$45,689 KL.
$45,689 KL.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
$17,872 KL.
1%
20–23
$10,112 KL.
43%
24–27
$8,092 KL.
36%
28–31
$1,956 KL.
5%
32–35
$4,583 KL.
2%
36–39
$1,365 KL.
<1%
40+
$1,709 KL.
5%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin at 43 percent. Senior members including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, and Jan Schakowsky cited age and a desire for generational turnover following the party’s 2024 losses, while others such as Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen pointed to mid-decade redistricting that altered their districts. Additional exits stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and a handful of primary defeats. With the count already near the upper end of the tightest range and Republican departures outpacing Democrats, traders weigh the likelihood of further announcements or primary challenges before November against historical patterns of late-cycle stability. The 24–27 bin’s 35 percent share reflects uncertainty over how many more seats could open before filing deadlines close.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$45,689Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin at 43 percent. Senior members including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, and Jan Schakowsky cited age and a desire for generational turnover following the party’s 2024 losses, while others such as Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen pointed to mid-decade redistricting that altered their districts. Additional exits stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and a handful of primary defeats. With the count already near the upper end of the tightest range and Republican departures outpacing Democrats, traders weigh the likelihood of further announcements or primary challenges before November against historical patterns of late-cycle stability. The 24–27 bin’s 35 percent share reflects uncertainty over how many more seats could open before filing deadlines close.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$45,689Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of early August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market’s leading 20–23 bin at 43 percent. Senior members including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, and Jan Schakowsky cited age and a desire for generational turnover following the party’s 2024 losses, while others such as Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen pointed to mid-decade redistricting that altered their districts. Additional exits stem from bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats and a handful of primary defeats. With the count already near the upper end of the tightest range and Republican departures outpacing Democrats, traders weigh the likelihood of further announcements or primary challenges before November against historical patterns of late-cycle stability. The 24–27 bin’s 35 percent share reflects uncertainty over how many more seats could open before filing deadlines close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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