Recent polling averages ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap election place the PP first on roughly 31 percent, followed by the PSOE on 27 percent and Vox on 19 percent. This ordering has held across most private surveys despite modest recent shifts, with the PP slipping slightly while the PSOE narrows the gap and Vox continues to rise. The left remains fragmented, limiting PSOE gains but reinforcing its position behind the PP. Trader pricing for second place aligns with these patterns, assigning the PSOE the clearest lead while assigning far lower probabilities to Vox, smaller left formations, or an upset by the PP. The right-wing bloc’s projected seat majority has not altered the expected ranking of the top two parties.